W2-P07


SAAPS -- SPACECRAFT ANOMALY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
SYSTEM


P. WINTOFT (1), H. Lundstedt (1), L. Eliasson (2), and
A. Hilgers (3)


(1) Swedish Institute of Space Physics,
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lund

(2) Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna

(3) ESA/ESTEC, Space Environments and Effects Analysis
Section



E-mail: peter@irfl.lu.se



A spacecraft anomaly analysis and prediction system
(SAAPS) is under development. The three main modules of SAAPS are: 1) a
database of space environment data and spacecraft anomalies, 2) tools
to analyze the space environment at times of anomalies, 3) models to
predict the environment and anomalies. The database will contain solar
wind data, geosynchronous electron flux data, and geomagnetic indices.
The database is updated in real time. The analysis module consists of
different statistical and neural network tools that should help to
identify the cause of anomalies. The prediction module contains neural
network models to predict various space environment parameters and
spacecraft anomalies. As the database is updated in real time this also
enables forecasting. In this work we examine the relations between
different anomaly data sets and the space environment. We also discuss
the models for prediction of the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
and the prediction of spacecraft anomalies.