Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna Division
ESTEC/Contract No. 13561/99/NL/SB
Monthly Progress Report
SAAPS-MR-21-99/00
Period: 2000-12-01--12-31
Authors: Lars Eliasson and Peter Wintoft
On December 12 a hard disk crashed. It took a couple of days to fix it and reinstall all documents and programs. It has not affected any code or documents.
A model for the prediction of a set of anomalies has been examined. The model is a neural network with daily averages of the solar wind density and velocity, extending over up to 10 days. The output is whether there have been any anomalies during one day. It has previously been demonstrated that the >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit can be predicted from the daily average solar wind density and velocity, especially for events that are related to high speed plasma streams in the solar wind. Then, as there is also a relation between the daily electron fluence and the tested set of anomalies leads to the conclusion that the anomalies should be predictable directly from the solar wind. A network for the nowcasting of the anomalies shows about 65% probability for correct prediction based on a balanced data set. A model based on just guessing will give 50% correct prediction. However, as this is a classification problem we can also calculate how large the error is for individual predictions. Then the probabilities for correct predictions can be estimated for different error levels. When the error is large the probability is close to 50%, i.e. there is no prediction. When the error is sufficiently small the probability rises to 80%. About 30% of the predicted anomalies have such small errors.
Mikael Pålsson at Esrange has been contacted for the SAAPS prototype. He has received an account and password to be able to test SAAPS. They have reported problems of running the applets. They can load the web pages but the applet only shows up as a grey blank area. It seems that the problem is related to the RMI, i.e. the functions of loading data from the SAAPS server. They use Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.0 on Microsoft Windows computers. The problem is under investigation.
The help pages for the electron daily fluence applet has been updated. The tool can be found at: http://sol.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsuser.
WP 110 URD for the database and database tools
An updated User Requirements Document for the database and database tools URD v ersion 1.1 of WP110 was delivered on 27 April 2000.
WP120 SRD for the database and database tools, DB&T
The SRD Version 1.0 was delivered on August 18 2000.
The technical note TN 1 (Database and database tools) version 0.2 was delivered on 31 January 2000. This note had previously the title Exploration of data.
WP130 Development of DB&T
The database is running including all data that appear in the URD except the low-orbit data.
Historic data set consists basically of the OMNI data. All real-time data are being stored and some data are transferred to the historic data set.
Five anomaly data sets are now included. Some smaller updates have been made. The beta version will be made available before asking for more data from operators.
WP140 Test and update of DB&T
A Test Plan for SAAPS has been written. Version 0.2 from November 14 exists on the web at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/.
WP205 Prototype of Satellite Anomaly Analysis Module, SAAM
A description can be found at: http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/wp205/wp205doc.html
WP210 URD for SAAM
The User Requirements Document for the Satellite Anomaly Analysis Module URD W P210 version 1.1 was delivered on 4 November 1999.
WP220 SRD for SAAM
The SRD Version 1.0 was delivered on August 18 2000.
An updated version of the technical note was delivered mid-March. An updated version of TN 2 (Satellite anomaly analysis module) version 0.2 was submitted 3 April 2000.
WP230 Development of SAAM
Data plotter routine and the superposed epoch analysis module are running.
More tools, such as entropy analysis, help functions and typical values will be implemented in the analysis module in the near future for beta release.
A password protected beta version of SAAM is available to some of the operators.
WP240 Testing and demonstration of SAAM with new data
Started T0+17. A Test Plan for SAAPS has been written. Version 0.2 from November 14 exists on the web at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/.
WP305 Prototype of Satellite Anomaly Prediction Module, SAPM
The prototype was installed on the server in April 1999.
WP310 URD for SAPM
The User Requirements Document URD W P310 draft version 1 was delivered on 17 November 1999.
WP320 SRD for SAP
The SRD Version 1.0 was delivered on August 18 2000.
The technical note TN 3 (Satellite anomaly prediction module) version 0.2 was delivered on 17 January 2000.
WP330 Development of SAPM
Anomaly sets will be analyzed with entropy methods to determine the most relevant parameters for each anomaly data set. Solar wind parameters (n, v, B), position, time, and magnetosphere data (GOES >0.6 MeV, > 2 MeV, Kp, Dst, LANL 10 keV and100 keV) will be tested.
A systematic study will first be done using one anomaly data set and be continued by training neutral networks and implemented on the web. Anomaly classes will be defined based on the outcome of the tests. The results will be presented in Technical Note 3.
WP340 Testing and demonstration of SAPM
Started T0+19. A Test Plan for SAAPS has been written. Version 0.2 from November 14 exists on the web at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/.
None
Approval of documents and strategy for the project.
None
The following 9 action items were identified at the PM4 held at ESTEC 2 November.
1. Peter Wintoft shall send a copy of the email previously sent to Howard Singer to Alain Hilgers and contact James Thieman at NSSDC and Lars Eliasson will contact Don Williams before 17 November. ** James Thieman has been contacted. A reply http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/other/tiros_info.html was received from Dr Kent Hills at NSSDC**
2. Alain Hilgers shall check all URDs and send comments or approval before 10 November.
3. Peter Wintoft shall contact again Paolo Maldari (ESOC) and ask them to clarify what was meant by "official channel" before 6 November. **Email has been sent in November but no answer has been received.**
4. Alain Hilgers shall comment or approve the SRD before 10 November.
5. Peter Wintoft shall update the test plan and send it to ESTEC for approval before 17 November. **An updated test plan has been written and submitted 14 November to ESTEC.**
6. Peter Wintoft shall release a beta version of SAAPS before 17 November. ** SAAPS version 0.1 was put on the web on November 17. Operators at Esrange has started to test SAAPS.**
7. Peter Wintoft shall send a detailed schedule of the rest of the implementation of the analysis module to Alain Hilgers for approval before 7 November.
8. Peter Wintoft shall send copy of communication with Whittlesey.** Copy was sent to Alain Hilgers on November 6.**
9. Peter Wintoft shall contact H Koons and ask about availability of anomaly data before 8 November.
Progress payment has been received.
The next progress meeting (nr 5)/delivery is planned to be held in Kiruna 9 February 2001.
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
| Phone | +46 980 790 00 |
| Fax | +46 980 790 91 |
| Internet: | http://www.irf.se/irfk.html |
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division
Scheelevagen 17
SE-223 70 Lund, Sweden
| Phone | +46 46 286 21 21 |
| Fax | +46 46 12 98 79 |
| Internet: | http://www.irfl.lu.se/ |