Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna Division

Plasma and Energetic Electron Environment and Effects Extension S/C Anomaly Analysis

ESTEC/Contract No. 13561/99/NL/SB

Authors: Lars Eliasson and Peter Wintoft

It has been decided that the next progress meeting will take place in Lund on August 14 and possibly also on the 15. A preliminary agenda can be found at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/schedule/pm3.html

The network optimization for the prediction of the >2 MeV electron flux of GOES-08 has continued. To summarize, the network uses 24-hour running averages of the solar wind density (n) and velocity (V) to predict the hourly average electron flux. The actual output of the network is the log-10 of the flux, which means that the numerical values ranges from -1 to +5.

The local time is essential as an input to the network as there are local time variations in the e-flux. First it was tried to use a 24-element vector to describe the local time in which only one element was set to one and the other to zero at each time. The final network produced the expected local time variation, however, the predictions were a bit nervous, i.e. there was an hour-to-hour variation that looked a bit random and was not present in the real data.

Another approach was then examined by using the cosine and sine functions to describe the local time variation. Now the predicted e-flux showed a smoother variation more close to the real variation, and at the same time showing the same performance as measured by the RMS error and linear correlations.

The optimal network need about 8 to 10 days of 24-hour averages of n and V as input. The best network also need the current values as input and thus produces nowcasting of the e-flux. The linear correlation for this network is 0.85 calculated from the predicted and observed log-10 e-flux. For 24-hour-ahead forecasts the correlation drops to about 0.80.

Preliminary studies have also been carried out by including hourly values of n, V, and Bz. However, the training was based on the 24-element local time description and the results were not conclusive as the "nervous" behaviour introduces some artificial variation. Further studies will be made using the hourly input data based on the model with cos-sin local time description. There is a draft TN, but the results in it are not up to date with the latest results. See http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/technical_notes/goes08v1.pdf

The SRD has also been updated. The latest 0.4 version can be found at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsint/schedule/srd_0.4.pdf It is still a "0." version as the Specific Requirements are not finished. I expects that it will be a "1."-version before the PM in August.

Further development has been made on the Java programming. Some bugs have been found in the database classes that have been corrected.

An updated User Requirements Document for the database and database tools URD version 1.1 of WP110 was delivered on 27 April 2000.

The Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.4 was updated in June 2000.

The technical note TN 1 (Database and database tools) version 0.2 was delivered on 31 January 2000. This note had previously the title Exploration of data.

Work has started during March 2000.

Start T0+15 according to the schedule

A description can be found at: http://www.irfl. lu.se/saaps/saapsint/wp205/wp205doc.html

The User Requirements Document for the Satellite Anomaly Analysis Module URD W P210 version 1.1 was delivered on 4 November 1999.

The Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.4 was updated in June 2000.

An updated version of the technical note was delivered mid-March. An updated version of TN 2 (Satellite anomaly analysis module) version 0.2 was submitted 3 April 2000.

Work has started during March 2000.

Start T0+17 according to the schedule

The prototype was installed on the server in April 1999.

The User Requirements Document URD W P310 draft version 1 was delivered on 17 November 1999.

The Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.4 was updated in June 2000.

The technical note TN 3 (Satellite anomaly prediction module) version 0.2 was delivered on 17 January 2000.

Work has started in April 2000.

Start T0+19 according to the schedule.

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Development work on all modules will continue. WP130 should be finished by the end of this month according to the schedule.

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The following 5 Action Items were discussed at the MTR held at ESTEC 28 February. (Will be confirmed when the minutes from the MTR is signed).

1. Peter Wintoft will send questionnaires to ESOC during March. **Questionnaires have been sent 17 April.**

2. Peter Wintoft will continue the investigation of the availability of LEO data. Report will be given at the next progress meeting.

3. Peter Wintoft will investigate the availability of other solar magnetograms especially European ones. Information will be included in the updated version of the URD for WP110.

4. Peter Wintoft will send an updated version of the URD for WP110 to Alain Hilgers during week 10. **Updated version of the URD has been submitted 27 April.**

5. Alain Hilgers will, during week 9, provide a new anomaly data set for which confidentiality will be kept.

Invoice for progress payment will be sent after verified delivery of the SRD as decided on the MTR.

The PM3 will be held in Lund 14-15 August.

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