Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna Division

Plasma and Energetic Electron Environment and Effects Extension S/C Anomaly Analysis

ESTEC/Contract No. 13561/99/NL/SB

Authors: Lars Eliasson and Peter Wintoft

The first week of May Peter Wintoft attended the space weather week in Boulder.

The rest of the month has been mainly devoted to the development of models for the prediction of >2 MeV electron flux as measured by the GOES-08 satellite. The electron data are re-sampled into one-hour averages. The input to the models is the OMNI solar wind data. Before the modeling phase the OMNI and GOES-08 data were explored to find overlapping periods of data, to handle data gaps, and to find correlation between parameters. The GOES data extend over the years 1995-1999. The OMNI data contain a large number of data gaps for this period and the best coverage is for the years 1995 and 1996. The electron flux levels are related to solar wind structures lasting for several days as well as rapid changes such as chocks and filaments. In principle this can be modeled with a several days long input window of hourly solar wind data to the neural network. However, in practice this is not possible due to the occurrence of data gaps in the solar wind data. Instead a two step approach is made. First we develop a network that models the electron flux response to the large-scale solar wind structures. For this we use daily averages of solar wind density and velocity. The daily average magnetic field has no effect and is not included. Preliminary results show that a time window of 9 days of data as input can be used for predictions one day ahead. The correlation between observed and predicted electron data is about 0.75. It is clear from a few examples that the deviation between the observed electron flux and the predicted are associated with abrupt changes in the solar wind. So the second step is to introduce a model using hourly solar wind data as input to predict the difference between the daily model output and the observations. A draft technical note is available at http://www.irfl.lu.se/saaps/saapsin t/

On the programming side the database routines have been further developed. Certain checks have been put into the code that uses the meta data to validate the data that goes into the database. Also the routines to import and export ASCII data have been updated. Although it is not part of SAAPS, experiments have been made by using an SQL database engine (MySQL) together with the Java Database Connectivity (JDBC) classes. The results show that MySQL is very fast and that it works well with large amounts of data. The changes in the Java code to use MySQL instead of using the SAAPS database engine are minor. The advantage is a more general database engine to access the various data fields.

Another European satellite operator has been found: New Skies Satellites with HQ in the Hague, Netherlands. It is a commercial operator formed from the partial privatization of INTELSAT. They currently have five satellites in geostationary orbit. An email describing SAAPS was sent to them on May 25. We have not received any reply yet. Their web page can be found at http://www.newskiessat.com

An updated User Requirements Document for the database and database tools URD v ersion 1.1 of WP110 was delivered on 27 April 2000.

An updated version of the Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.3 was submitted 3 April 2000.

The technical note TN 1 (Database and database tools) version 0.2 was delivered on 31 January 2000. This note had previously the title Exploration of data.

Work has started during March 2000.

Start T0+15 according to the schedule

A description can be found at: http://www.irfl. lu.se/saaps/saapsint/wp205/wp205doc.html

The User Requirements Document for the Satellite Anomaly Analysis Module URD W P210 version 1.1 was delivered on 4 November 1999.

An updated version of the Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.3 was submitted 3 April 2000.

An updated version of the technical note was delivered mid-March. An updated version of TN 2 (Satellite anomaly analysis module) version 0.2 was submitted 3 April 2000.

Work has started during March 2000.

Start T0+17 according to the schedule

The prototype was installed on the server in April 1999.

The User Requirements Document URD W P310 draft version 1 was delivered on 17 November 1999.

An updated version of the Software Requirements Document SRD version 0.3 was submitted 3 April 2000.

The technical note TN 3 (Satellite anomaly prediction module) version 0.2 was delivered on 17 January 2000.

Work has started in April 2000.

Start T0+19 according to the schedule.

None

No special events are anticipated this month. Development work on all modules will continue.

None

The following 5 Action Items were discussed at the MTR held at ESTEC 28 February. (Will be confirmed when the minutes from the MTR is signed).

1. Peter Wintoft will send questionnaires to ESOC during March. **Questionnaires have been sent 17 April.**

2. Peter Wintoft will continue the investigation of the availability of LEO data. Report will be given at the next progress meeting.

3. Peter Wi ntoft will investigate the availability of other solar magnetograms especially European ones. Information will be included in the updated version of the URD for WP110.

4. Peter Wintoft will send an updated version of the URD for WP110 to Alain Hilgers during week 10. **Updated version of the URD has been submitted 27 April.**

5. Alain Hilgers will, during week 9, provide a new anomaly data set for which confidentiality will be kept.

Invoice for progress payment will be sent after verified delivery of the SRD as decided on the MTR.

The PM3 will be held in Lund 14-15 August.

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