Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-23-05
Period: 2005-02-01--02-28
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
A paper was submitted to the Annales
Geophysicae Special Edition with the title "Predictions of local ground
geomagnetic field fluctuations during the 7ń10 November 2004 events studied
with solar wind driven models".
An updated version of the WP 400 Technical
Note on "Forecasting local geomagnetic field fluctuations and GIC from
solar wind data" can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/.
Magnus Wik and Risto Pirjola attended a
GIC meeting held at the ELFORSK office in Stockholm on February 23, 2005. The
other participants were representatives of the ELFORSK, Svenska Kraftn”t,
Sydkraft and Vattenfall power companies. The main objective of the meeting was
to discuss technical and other issues associated with the Swedish high-voltage
power grid data to be provided for GIC calculations in the present SDA. Magnus
presented a summary about the space physics behind GIC and about the SDA. Risto
explained the details about the power system that have to be known to be able
to calculate GIC.
Basically, a GIC calculation consists of
the "geophysical part" referring to the determination of the
geoelectric field and of the "engineering part", which is the
computation of GIC created by the geoelectric field. The ELFORSK meeting was
concentrated on the latter part.
It has already been decided earlier that
the main objective of the SDA is to determine GIC at a 400 kV station in
southern Sweden, which means that power grid data are only needed in southern
Sweden such that two-to-three neighbouring stations of the particular station
considered are included. Due to the use of autotransformers, which imply the
possibility of GIC flowing from one voltage level to another within a
transformer, it is not sufficient to consider the 400 kV system only but lower
voltage(s) have to be included as well. The requirements of the GIC
calculations became clear at the meeting, and the power company representatives
promised to compile a file in the near future (hopefully and probably before
mid-March when Risto will start a one-week visit to IRF-Lund). It is also
desirable to receive GIC recordings to be used for comparisons with model
computations.
After the meeting, Magnus and Risto had
the possibility of summarising the outcome of the meeting and of discussing the
SDA, in particular different ways of determining the ground electric and
magnetic fields, in greater detail.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep and Oct
2004 based on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN version 0.3 can be
found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical
analysis of solar wind and GIC data
are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model
for computation of GIC from geomagnetic
field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been developed. Input to draft
Technical Note WP400 has been delivered.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architecture has been identified and linear filter
constructed.
Optimal forecasting model for
implementation has been identified.
Software has been developed. Input to draft Technical Note
WP400 has been delivered.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. A fluxgate magnetometer is being installed close to
V”xj–.
Software requirements document is being
prepared. Draft showing preliminary content can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/500/
Prototype
software system is ready.
System manual
will be written in
html-format
User manual will
be provided on-line.
Test report is
being prepared.
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work on cost benefit analysis has started in
close collaboration with the costumer and some material has been delivered from
them.
Forecast service
has been running since early September
2004
GIC events are being monitored and one
important event identified that gave good
possibilities to test the
service.
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the
estimated time. A solution on how the power grid
data will be delivered to us was
decided early June within the ELFORSK project but
we are still waiting for the final
data. Constructive meetings have been held and we will be able to perform the
planned calculations.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4.
Status report on all long
lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Progress payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2005.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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