Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-21-04
Period: 2004-12-01--12-31
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
Discussions about the SDA were carried out
at the First European Space Weather Week at ESTEC at the end of November and
during the first days of December. A major issue is how 10 min root-mean-square
values of ground magnetic field variations to be forecasted by the IRF group
can be utilised in connection with FMI's geoelectric field and GIC calculation
routines. A draft manuscript entitled "Estimation of the geomagnetically
induced current levels from different input data" and written by Antti
Pulkkinen provides some useful ideas. The Christmas and New Year holidays
caused a short break in the work which is continued in January.
Model calculations of GIC at Oskarshamn
have been delayed due to the fact that power system data are not yet available.
One problem has been the coordination of input material from the power
companies. A new project has been established within ELFORSK that will provide
the requested data from the different power companies involved. The next
meeting with ELFORSK will be held within about a month.
A paper was submitted to Annales
Geophysicae that addresses the forecasting of RMS dX and dY at Uppsala and
Brorfelde. The importance of different solar wind inputs and the forecast lead
time were explored. It was found that three solar wind parameters had a
significant contribution: average magnetic field component Bz, standard
deviation of the particle density n, and average solar wind speed V. All data
have a 10-minute resolution. In addition local time has a small but significant
influence due to a weak local time variation in RMS dX and dY. The forecast
lead time was set to 30 minutes and then gradually increased to 90 minutes,
with successive retraining of the networks. It was found that the correlation
monotonically decreases with increasing lead time and became significantly
smaller at lead times of 70 to 90 minutes. The models also showed a steeper
decrease in correlation in RMS dX compared to RMS dY.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep and Oct
2004 based on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN version 0.3 can be
found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been developed. Input to draft
Technical Note WP400 has been delivered.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architecture has been identified and linear filter
constructed.
Optimal forecasting model for
implementation has been identified.
Software has been developed. Input to draft Technical Note
WP400 has been delivered.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. A fluxgate magnetometer is being installed close to
V”xj–.
Software requirements document is being
prepared. Draft showing preliminary content can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/500/
Prototype
software system is ready.
System manual
will be written in
html-format
User manual will
be provided on-line.
Test report is
being prepared.
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work on cost benefit analysis has started in
close collaboration with the costumer and some material has been delivered from
them.
Forecast service has been running since early
September 2004
GIC events are being monitored and one
important event identified that gave good
possibilities to test the
service.
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the
estimated time. A solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us
has been decided early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting was held 22
October to finally resolve this problem.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Progress payment Invoice has been sent to ESTEC
late November. Payment not yet received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2005.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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