Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-18-04
Period: 2004-09-01--09-30
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
Henrik Lundstedt
has participated in a meeting 22
September in Stockholm organised by ELFORSK (our
ìcostumerî) about Solar storms.
Henrik gave a talk with the title ìThe Sun, space weather and GIC effects in
Sweden.î Henrik reports that it was a very interesting meeting, he had
interesting discussions with several representatives from the power companies
and he was also interviewed by a journal with main interest in the power
industry. The power grid data that we need for this study was also discussed
and it was agreed to have a meeting to arrange the practical details concerning
these data on 22 October.
A paper "The Sun, Space weather and GIC
Effects in Sweden" by Henrik
Lundstedt has been submitted to Advances in Space Reserach 29 Sep. It is based
on an invited talk given at the COSPAR meeting in
Stockholm.
We have also initiated discussions to finalize
the work needed for WP600. The needed material will be available well before
the end of the contract time.
The TN in WP200 has been updated according to
comments by ESA/ESTEC (Alexi Glover). It can found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
Discussions on retrieving real
time geomagnetic data from Brorfelde and Uppsala has been initiated. Data from
Brorfelde will be received at least for the duration of the Pilot Project. It
is agreed that the data may only be used in plots, and that the data may not be
further distributed. This new information will be added to the TN.
A draft Technical Note for
WP300 can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
In WP400 a new model has been
developed that predicts the RMS and MAX GIC using the predicted RMS dB. It is a
linear model with BFEdX, BFEdY, UPSdX, and UPSdY as inputs. A draft TN has been
produced and can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/.
In WP500 the real time
forecast pages have been updated. They can be found at http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/forecast/.
The pages now include the RMS and MAX GIC forecasts. The archived forecasts are
also available from the pages.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep 2004 based
on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid..
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. One part of this is the
decision that a fluxgate
magnetometer shall be installed close to the town
of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work has started in close colaboration with the
costumer
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the
estimated time. A solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us
has been decided early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting will be held
22 October to finally resolve this problem.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Fall
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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