Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-15-04
Period: 2004-06-01--06-30
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
Work has continued
implementing GIC information on the web pages. The public part will also be
included on the ISES/RWC-Sweden page.
Some historical GIC events
have been studied and will be part of presentations at the ISES/COSPAR/SWWT
meetings in Paris in July.
Henrik L has been invited by
ELFORSK to give a talk on îThe Sun, space weather and GIC-effects in Swedenî at
a workshop in Stockholm in September. Products to eliminate GIC effects will be
discussed at the workshop.
After Antti Pulkkinen left FMI
for a two-year post-doc visit to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in May
2004, FMI hired a new student of physics to work on GIC topics at least during
the summer of 2004. The work of the student concentrates on the second step of
GIC calculation, i.e. on the determination of GIC when the geoelectric field
and the network parameters are known. Research is planned to be done on the
effects of transformer neutral point reactors and of series capacitors on the
GIC flow pattern in a power system.
To continue FMI's works on the
Pilot SDA, FMI is still waiting for the power system data in the surroundings
of Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations. As outlined in the Monthly Report
of May, the first step might be to use estimated resistance values based on
those in Finland but the geometrical configuration including the positions of
groundings etc are needed from Sweden anyway.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted.
URD
version 1.5 in pdf-format (2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar
wind data, and GIC data exist.
Draft Technical Note is ready see http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid. A preliminary review has
been made by ESTEC.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data shall be included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net shall be used. The 220 kV power net will not
be used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric field in general has been
written.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft
Technical Note is ready.
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in
progress and no delay is foreseen. One part of this
is the decision that a
fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to
the town of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Start T0+12
according to the schedule
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the
estimated time.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Fall
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
|
+46 980
790 00 |
|
|
Fax |
+
46 980 790 91 |
|
internet |