Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-12-04
Period: 2004-03-01--03-31
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric field in general has been
written. A simple analysis of the spatial uniformity of the field in southern
Sweden was also done.
In WP400 models for the
prediction of the rate-of-change of the local magnetic field (dH) and direct
prediction of GIC shall be developed. The solar wind is used as input to the
models. The models core part consists of artificial neural networks (ANN). The
ANN architecture has been identified in terms of input units, connections, and
internal feed-backs. The same architecture can be used both for the dH model
(WP401) and the GIC model (WP402). It is also found that about 90% of the power
in dH is concentrated to fluctuations on time scales of about 20 minutes or
less and 80% of the power on times scales of 10 minutes or less. In addition,
the auto-correlation of dH drops quickly to zero indicating that any averaging
is not meaningful. Thus, the approach we use is to forecast the variance of dH
and band-pass filtered dH over 10 minute intervals or longer. Models have been
developed for the Brorfelde (BFE) station and other stations shall be included.
The current models give reasonable good performance with average correlation of
0.7, but further optimisation is possible.
The models have been
implemented in Java. The analysis and model development are described in the
technical note for WP400 that is being written.
Negotiations concerning the
magnetometer in southern Sweden have resulted in collaboration with the LOIS
(LOFAR Outrigger in Scandinavia) consortium.
A preliminary service operating on a public project
website will be implemented within the next
couple of months.
I have noticed some errors in
previous monthly reports. An old version of the management plan has been used
when producing the monthly reports. In that version the ģend of eventī for some
WP were wrong.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted.
URD
version 1.5 in pdf-format (2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar
wind data, and GIC data exist.
Draft Technical Note is ready see http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data shall be included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net shall be used. The 220 kV power net will not
be used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric field in general has been
written.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the
neural network has been developed.
Draft
Technical Note is ready.
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in
progress and no delay is foreseen. One part of this
is the decision that a
fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to
the town of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready
at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Start T0+12
according to the schedule
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
None
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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