Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-11-04
Period: 2004-02-01--02-29
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
The database contains since January 2004 the data
described in the URD. The technical note of the database, together with
information on how to access the database, are
available at the internal webpage
for WP 200 http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
Additional data may be added to the database
during the project.
Data from WP 300 have been delivered so that work may
proceed on WP 401 for the development of the forecast model of the time
derivative of the local geomagnetic field over the southern part of Sweden
using solar wind data.
Progress has been made on WP 402 for the direct
forecasting of GIC from solar wind data. Through a correlation study with local
geomagnetic field it has been found that part of the signal in the measured GIC
is not related to the space weather. The signal basically consists of a slowly
varying (more than one hour) component of a few Amperes. Through a wavelet
filtering technique this component may be removed. Development of neural
network models has started that aims at predicting the GIC values with varying
time resolution. Alternative approaches are also studied in which the maximum
absolute GIC over different time intervals (5 min, 10 min, 1 hour) are
predicted. The technical note for WP 400 is in progress.
After a detailed visual inspection, the interpolated
magnetic field database was revised using fine-tuned interpolation parameters.
The purpose of the revision was to minimize the unphysical features observed in
the field patterns.
The interpolated magnetic field of the selected 27
active days in 1998-2000 has been used to calculate the geoelectric field in
southern Sweden. Preliminary results show that the spatial variation is mostly
smooth in this region, which was expected for
subauroral latitudes.
Writing of the technical note of WP300 has started
concerning the general calculation of the electric field.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been updated to cope with the
comments from ESTEC.
URD
version 1.5 in pdf-format (2003-12-18).
Older versions of the URD can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
Observed GIC data from south Sweden have
been collected.
Power grid layout for the GIC periods has
been studied.
A database with gridded geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data
exist.
Information about GIC-data shall be
included in the database.
Draft Technical Note is ready see http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data shall be included in the TN.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used. It is not connected to OKG.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Geomagnetic database has been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
Technical note is being
prepared.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Compilation of Earthís conductivity models.
Adjustment of the fast computation of the
electric field.
Computation of geoelctrical field values.
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field.
Input to Technical Note WP300
has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
Perform simple demonstration.
Locate most GIC-sensitive sites.
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Input to Technical Note WP300
has been delivered.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
Will start by comparing the forecast of
B-field from Uppsala with measured
values. It is important to cover the high values of dB/dt. A list of
interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and testing has been
identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to
the schedule
Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the
schedule
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Work has started.
Create datasets for training, validation, and testing.
Identify neural network architectures.
Train and validate neural networks.
Identify optimal neural network for implementation.
Develop software package implementing the optimal model.
Test model.
Software package ready at T0 +
8.5 according to the schedule
Input to Technical Note ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the
schedule
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Work has started.
Create datasets for training, validation, and testing.
Identify neural network architectures.
Train and validate neural networks.
Identify optimal neural network for implementation.
Develop software package implementing the optimal model.
Test model.
Software package ready at T0 +
8.5 according to the schedule
Input to Technical Note ready
at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in
progress and no delay is foreseen. One part of this
is the decision that a
fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to
the town of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Start T0+12
according to the schedule
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
None
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event during February.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No Open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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