Swedish Institute of Space Physics

Real-Time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents, GIC

Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications

ESTEC/Contract No. 16953/02/NL/LvH

Monthly Progress Report

GIC-MR-7-03

Period: 2003-10-01--10-31

Author: Lars Eliasson

1. Progress status

A meeting together with the subcontractor was held in Helsinki 16 October 2003. The progress in each work package as well as the need, resolution, and availability of data sets were discussed.

Presentations to be given at the Space Weather Workshop at ESTEC 3-5 November have been prepared.

Public outreach issues have been discussed. It is important that more people become aware of space weather effects such as geomagnetically induced currents. The content of a course in GIC has been discussed in some detail. It is proposed that it will be given in collaboration between IRF and FMI.

ESTEC (Alexi Glover) has sent comments regarding the URD. It shall, e.g., be changed to show that the work will be concentrated on a prototype for southern Sweden that in the future can be extended to cover the whole country. The URD will be updated to cope with the comments from ESTEC.

A Draft Technical Note on the database is ready. It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data about the power grid. Information about GIC-data shall be included in the database.

We shall only take the 400 kV power net into account. The 220 kV power net is not connected to OKG.

Different methods to estimate GIC shall be compared. Methods to update information in real time and resolution needed when calculating the B-field have been discussed.

Forecast work will start by comparing B-field values from Uppsala with the measured ones. The importance to cover the high values of dB/dt has been stressed.

It has now been finally decided that a fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to the town of V”xj– in southern Sweden to help providing magnetic field data with better spatial coverage.

WP 100 User requirements

Draft URD was resubmitted to ESTEC for comments September 2003. ESTEC (Alexi Glover) has sent comments regarding the URD. The URD will be updated to cope with the comments from ESTEC.

Final URD at T0 + 3 according to the schedule

WP200 Database

Information about GIC-data shall be included in the database.

Draft Technical Note is ready. It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data about the power grid.

Technical note at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP201 Solar wind and GIC datasets

We shall only take the 400 kV power net into account. The 220 kV power net is not connected to OKG.

Data set with GIC data ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data in a dense grid

Work has started.

Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP300 Model for computation of GIC from geomagnetic field

Different methods to estimate GIC shall be compared.

Program code exists.

Software package ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP302 Model for computation of GIC from geoelectric field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of GIC from geoelectric field.

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind data

Will start by comparing the forecast of B-field from Uppsala with measured values. It is important to cover the high values of dB/dt.

Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical grid from solar wind data

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from solar wind

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP500 Service implemention

Work with implementing services has started. One part of this is the decision that a fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to the town of V”xj–.

Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

WP600 Cost-benefit analysis

Start T0+12 according to the schedule

Cost benefit report ready at T0 + 24

WP700 Management

Buisiness plan ready at T0 + 24

2. Problem areas/reasons for slippages

None

3. Events anticipated to be accomplished during next reporting period

No major event during October.

4. Status report on all long lead or critical delivery items

None

5. Action items

No Open

6. Milestone payment status

Advance payment has been received.

7. Expected dates for major schedule items

Date for the third Progress Meeting is during the workshop at ESTEC 3-6 November 2003.