Swedish Institute of Space Physics

Real-Time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents, GIC

Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications

ESTEC/Contract No. 16953/02/NL/LvH

Monthly Progress Report

GIC-MR-6-03

Period: 2003-09-01--09-30

Author: Lars Eliasson

1. Progress status

The URD has been updated based on comments from the GIC team and sent to ESTEC for final comments.

Antti Pulkkinen successfully defended his Ph.D. thesis dealing with ground effects of space weather, i.e. GIC, at the University of Helsinki on August 30. It created a lot of PR actions on space weather and GIC in Finnish media before and after the defence event. The several recent blackouts of electricity (in North America, Sweden & Denmark, Italy), which have NOT been caused by GIC, have demonstrated the vulnerability of today's power grids anyway, and thus they have increased the significance of GIC research as well.

To improve the communication on and common understanding of GIC issues, the GIC scientists of FMI have been in frequent contacts with engineers at the Finnish power company to discuss the GIC calculation method developed at FMI and used, e.g., in the present GIC forecast project, too. An important point in the discussions is the restrictions of applying standard power system load-flow programs for GIC computations."

Work with analysis methods has continued. Wavelet analysis has been used to study selected events. The GIC index will be defined based on these experiences.

WP 100 User requirements

Draft URD was resubmitted to ESTEC for comments September 2003.

Updated URD at T0 + 2 according to the schedule

Final URD at T0 + 3 according to the schedule

WP200 Database

Work has started on the GIC database

Technical note at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP201 Solar wind and GIC datasets

Work has started.

Data set with GIC data ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data in a dense grid

Work has started.

Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP300 Model for computation of GIC from geomagnetic field

Work has started.

Software package ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP302 Model for computation of GIC from geoelectric field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of GIC from geoelectric field.

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind data

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical grid from solar wind data

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from solar wind

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP500 Service implemention

Work has started.

Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

WP600 Cost-benefit analysis

Start T0+12 according to the schedule

Cost benefit report ready at T0 + 24

WP700 Management

Buisiness plan ready at T0 + 24

2. Problem areas/reasons for slippages

None

3. Events anticipated to be accomplished during next reporting period

No major event during October.

4. Status report on all long lead or critical delivery items

None

5. Action items

No Open

6. Milestone payment status

Advance payment has been received.

7. Expected dates for major schedule items

Date for the second Progress Meeting is during the workshop at ESTEC 3-6 November 2003.